Global oil markets held firmly above $100 per barrel as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued fresh warnings to Gulf states, threatening that the worst of the conflict’s energy consequences had not yet arrived. The warnings came as Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities continued to fuel tensions across the region.
Israeli forces had struck oil storage sites near Tehran, killing four workers and leaving the capital blanketed in smoke. Iran’s response was swift and explicit: Gulf states that continued to facilitate attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure would face consequences far beyond anything they had yet experienced. The warning was backed by a weekend of strikes against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia intercepted 15 drones in a single engagement, while Bahrain’s desalination plant sustained damage and two Saudi civilians were killed in a residential strike. A US service member died from wounds sustained in an Iranian attack in Saudi Arabia, the seventh American killed in the conflict, as reports emerged of Russian intelligence being shared with Iran to target US forces.
Iran’s clerical body appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, the first hereditary transfer of the position since the 1979 revolution. His appointment raised immediate questions about whether the new leader would seek to moderate Iran’s military campaign or allow it to continue expanding unchecked.
Washington pledged restraint on Iranian oil infrastructure and predicted brief disruptions, but markets remained unmoved by the assurances. With Iran explicitly warning of worse to come and oil above $100, the direction of travel for crude prices appeared to have only one destination in the near term.
