Geopolitical pressures are creating a dual risk for the energy transition, according to BP’s chief economist, who notes that while these forces could spur low-carbon innovation, they are also driving deeper reliance on local fossil fuels. The result is BP raising its long-term oil and gas forecasts and concluding the 2050 net-zero target is “unlikely.”
BP’s revised figures confirm the resilience of fossil fuels. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, the company now expects oil demand to peak five years later, in 2030, at 103 million b/d.
The report explicitly links the slowdown to the intense focus on national energy security, driven by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside rising trade tariffs. This security-first mandate may accelerate some nations towards low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ but the key risk is the increased preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy alternatives, thereby stifling global decarbonization.
The climate consequences are severe. BP’s modeling indicates that the current energy trajectory will lead the world to breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The report cautions that this delay significantly increases the economic and social costs required for future stabilization efforts. For the world to meet net-zero 2050, oil demand must drop drastically to approximately 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite rapid growth in wind and solar power—expected to meet over 80% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035—oil will maintain its market dominance. Oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are not projected to surpass oil until the late 2040s, illustrating the decade-long inertia in the energy system.
